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Dr. Bob is Robert Hsiung, MD,
bob@dr-bob.orgShown: posts 1 to 15 of 15. This is the beginning of the thread.
Posted by linkadge on March 18, 2012, at 14:09:39
I am predicting a major market crash this year somewhere between April and September.
Look at a 10 year S&P 500. You've got the convergence of two Elliot Waves (a micro and a macro) at this point.
Linkadge
Posted by free on March 19, 2012, at 22:48:28
In reply to The 'big one' is coming, posted by linkadge on March 18, 2012, at 14:09:39
Oh, cr*p.
Hey, do you have any thoughts on how this will affect the real estate market - long and short term?
I'm thinking about investing in r/e right now.Thanks.
Posted by sigismund on March 19, 2012, at 23:01:11
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming » linkadge, posted by free on March 19, 2012, at 22:48:28
Isn't there some idea along the following lines.....
QE is going to lead to inflation down the track, so interest rates will have to be jacked up so foreclosures will increase leading to downward pressure on real estate.
Similar effect on shares.
Then there is the oil price.
Like 70s stagflation?
I wouldn't feel too bad about buying US real estate, if only because I bought shares in 2006 or so. You can't go *that* wrong, can you?
Posted by linkadge on March 20, 2012, at 18:18:48
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by sigismund on March 19, 2012, at 23:01:11
>QE is going to lead to inflation down the track, >so interest rates will have to be jacked up so >foreclosures will increase leading to downward >pressure on real estate.
I'm not sure what the goal is for QE this time around (at least in Canada), but yeah. In Canada, the real estate picture is not great. Interest rates will have to rise some time. I would (personally) not invest in real estate right now. Low mortage rates are just one part of the picture. When interest rates rise, people will forclose, opening the door to a better prices on housing.
For me, I think the case for renting will get stronger. More retirees looking for houses to rent out for additional income.
Of course, where you live is an important factor.
>Similar effect on shares.
Yes, people are optimistic about the sucessful "greek bailout", but this is shortsighted. The US and Europe have big dept problems. With interest rates low, people are very tempted to turn to the markets *and* invest on margin. But, the market moves in the way that hurts the most people. The debt woes of Greece and the US will resurface at a time when the markets are high. Or there will be another catalyst (i.e. high oil) that causes fears of enduring or returning ressession.
Right now, I'd keep a good chunk in cash. There will be a better time for GIC's, Bonds or Equitites fairly soon.
>Then there is the oil price.
>Like 70s stagflation?Yes, very much like the 70's. Actually the chart for the 70's looks a lot like 2000's.
>I wouldn't feel too bad about buying US real >estate, if only because I bought shares in 2006 >or so. You can't go *that* wrong, can you?
What form of real estate did you invest in?
Posted by sigismund on March 20, 2012, at 20:26:13
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by linkadge on March 20, 2012, at 18:18:48
>What form of real estate did you invest in?
I didn't. I bought shares around 2006! I'm not sure I understand. I have a house.
The Australian property market is way up on the US one. Various ratios are used to argue that it is overvalued by around 40%. These are a comparison of rents to prices, and yearly wages to prices, IIRC. I'm not convinced but I don't know anything......ratios can remain out of whack for years. I bought a house around 1980 for 37,000 and now it would cost over half a million, so I feel quite disoriented.
The EMU was a mistake, I guess. If a state in the US goes bust everyone can leave as I read kind of happened maybe? But this is not so easy in Europe. And the problem for Spain was something like this.....the ECB wanted to make things easy on the Germans (can't remember what) so money was made easy and then it flowed into Spain and they built way too much. The government there was not over spending.
Posted by free on March 22, 2012, at 16:34:37
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by sigismund on March 20, 2012, at 20:26:13
Hi Link and Sig!
Wow, you gents certainly know quite a bit about economy. I, seem to be very proficient at spending, but unfortunately, am not too financially savvy about much else. So I'm glad to see this timely thread as I'm looking to invest in a property with a rental appeal. I live in a "desirable" part of the US (economically and lifestyle wise - according to the magazines). The property values have come down in my city, but not too much compared to the rest of the country, and seem to be holding steady. Call it "lazy" :), but I hadn't thought about the effects of inevitable rise in interest rates and foreclosures "opening the door to a better prices on housing." Do you think, then I should definitely wait and see what happens with the market at least until September? And when you say "I'd keep a good chunk in cash," do you mean to keep it liquid in the bank?
Thanks.
p.s. (((Siggy))), very happy to hear you're feeling disoriented...nice work! :)
Posted by sigismund on March 22, 2012, at 22:29:08
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by free on March 22, 2012, at 16:34:37
Yes hello, haven't seen you for ages.
Here is someone I have found helpful. I suppose he is on the conservative side, but kind of nice, not like those awful people who must remain nameless.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/
Posted by sigismund on March 22, 2012, at 22:42:52
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming » free, posted by sigismund on March 22, 2012, at 22:29:08
This is interesting..........
>The US stress tests are widely viewed as more rigorous, modelling the shock effects of a 5pc fall in GDP, a 52pc drop in equities, and a further fall of 21pc in house prices. By contrast, the EU tests have already been overtaken by events, with both economic contraction and unemployment in Spain certain to exceed the worst case scenario for 2012.
Posted by free on March 23, 2012, at 20:09:48
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming » free, posted by sigismund on March 22, 2012, at 22:29:08
> Yes hello, haven't seen you for ages.
>
> Here is someone I have found helpful. I suppose he is on the conservative side, but kind of nice, not like those awful people who must remain nameless.
>
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/
Thanks for the education, gentlemen. I'll wait to see what happens with the market before jumping in.
Well, back under the mattress it goes! :)
Posted by sigismund on March 24, 2012, at 1:29:08
In reply to Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by free on March 23, 2012, at 20:09:48
>Well, back under the mattress it goes! :)
I dunno.
The money can't find a place to be safe. It doesn't want to end up being passed to a place which explodes.
As soon as it can find it, it will go there very quickly. To the next ponzi scheme.
Posted by 64bowtie on March 26, 2012, at 6:16:50
In reply to The 'big one' is coming, posted by linkadge on March 18, 2012, at 14:09:39
Elliot Wave Principle critique: by David Aaronson
>>>The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
Posted by linkadge on March 29, 2012, at 18:53:09
In reply to Re:Re: The 'big one' is coming » linkadge, posted by 64bowtie on March 26, 2012, at 6:16:50
The Elliot wave is not a guarentee of course, nor can it predict the actions of the market at all times or in every environment.
However, there is some validity to the trends described by the principle.
Posted by sigismund on March 30, 2012, at 14:27:14
In reply to Re:Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by linkadge on March 29, 2012, at 18:53:09
I am encouraged by the fact that no one has much idea of what is going to happen.
Certainly not the financial people I deal with.
They just make it up as they go along.
Posted by linkadge on April 2, 2012, at 14:21:59
In reply to Re:Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by sigismund on March 30, 2012, at 14:27:14
Nobody knows for certain. However, I still stand behind my 'big crash' theory, by the end of the summer. :)
Linadge
Posted by sigismund on April 2, 2012, at 14:54:56
In reply to Re:Re: The 'big one' is coming, posted by linkadge on April 2, 2012, at 14:21:59
This Irishman called for a charity. Here is here because of the GFC. His father told him it would take a generation for it to be over. We ended up having an interesting conversation. One thing he said is that the Irish government has been printing their old currency for quite a while. He took it for granted that the Euro would not survive.
This is the end of the thread.
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